Friday, February 6, 2009

My response to the Christie Urban Strategy

PoliticsNJ has recently discussed a strategy by Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie to win over urban areas for the GOP without the cheap pandering usually employed. This is sorely needed.

The reality is that the margin produced for Democrats by Jersey City, East Orange, Paterson, Irvington, Newark, and other cities is so colossal that it's really the growth opportunity for the GOP. Even if Republicans won a third of the urban vote, it would result in a transfer of nearly 150,000 votes to the Republicans, possibly enough to win with an inevitable gain for the GOP in the suburbs against Corzine. The reality is that Jon Corzine's policies have done little for business growth in these areas, and they even got hit with an increase in the urban enterprise zone sales tax.

These votes, and the ones of West New York and Passaic and other "peripheral" cities have been largely discounted by both parties. But with the incredible urban malaise under Corzine its probable that Christie can cut into this base, especially since it will be the urban working and middle class voting in an off-year race. I especially think West New York, Union City, Perth Amboy, Wards B and E in Jersey City, the East and North Wards of Newark and the South and East Wards of Trenton are prime pickings for Lonegan or Christie each of whom has projected working-class entrepreneurial ideas. Moreover, in North Hudson, and North and East Newark, Democratic factions with their own independent ideals might be willing to back Republicans.

What should be added to this strategy of selling street-smart principles is fielding credible candidates in urban districts. While these races are taken for granted by both parties, they can be won (look at Frank Catania's wins in a Paterson-district in 1990, 1991 and 1993). This could help the overall Republican margin as more votes are brought out than in 2005 when few credible urban Republicans ran.

Course this will take party chairs who play to win, not play on the 8th hole.